Last Friday mortgage prices increased a little, but not much; holiday trade generally doesn't amount to much. This morning the bond and mortgage markets opened better with no data points today; this week however, is filled with data beginning tomorrow. The dollar is stronger again this morning, not what equity markets want to see, the stock index futures were lower as a result. The US rate markets are supported on concern the rescue for Ireland will fail to contain Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis, increasing demand for the safety of U.S. government debt. Next up are Portugal and Spain as Europe's debt issues show little signs of being contained. The tensions between South and North Korea continue to be a concern but so far as these kinds of face offs go, it hasn't been a major impact on the markets.
.Christmas shopping (yes, I said Christmas) was slightly stronger than last year. Consumer spending on Black Friday was up about 0.3%, with most retailers better but still remains an unfinished story. Not anyway scientific, I was out briefly on Sunday and wasn't impressed with what I saw at the most prestigious malls in Indy, not as much traffic as one would have expected. Most analysts expect stronger Christmas sales than last year, but refrain from becoming too optimistic.
.More QE 2 Fed buying today; the Fed is scheduled today to buy $1.5B to $2.5B of Treasuries due from February 2021 to November 2027 and $6B to $8B in government debt maturing from May 2013 to November 2014. The central bank plans to focus about 86% of its purchases on notes due in 2.5 years to 10 years, leaving the 30- year bond as the security that most closely reflects market expectations for inflation. Since the Fed’s Nov. 3 announcement, the 30-year yield rose 0.28 percentage points, suggesting growing investor confidence in the central bank’s efforts to avoid deflation as the economy expands.
.| Date | Time (ET) | Statistic | For | Market Expects | Prior |
| 11/30/10 | 09:00:00 AM | Case-Shiller 20-city Index | Sep | 1.00% | 1.70% |
| 11/30/10 | 10:00:00 AM | Consumer Confidence | Nov | 52 | 50.2 |
| 12/01/10 | 08:15:00 AM | ADP Employment Report | Nov | 58K | 43K |
| 12/01/10 | 08:30:00 AM | Productivity-Rev. | Q3 | 2.40% | 1.9 |
| 12/01/10 | 10:00:00 AM | ISM Index | Nov | 56.5 | 56.9 |
| 12/01/10 | 10:00:00 AM | Construction Spending | Oct | -0.50% | 0.50% |
| 12/01/10 | 02:00:00 PM | Auto Sales | Nov | 3.71M | 3.68M |
| 12/01/10 | 02:00:00 PM | Truck Sales | Nov | 5.35M | 5.59M |
| 12/01/10 | 02:00:00 PM | Fed's Beige Book | Dec | - | - |
| 12/02/10 | 08:30:00 AM | Continuing Claims | 11/20/10 | 4200K | 4182K |
| 12/02/10 | 08:30:00 AM | Initial Claims | 11/27/10 | 422K | 407K |
| 12/02/10 | 10:00:00 AM | Pending Home Sales | Oct | 0.00% | -1.80% |
| 12/03/10 | 08:30:00 AM | Nonfarm Payrolls | Nov | 130K | 151K |
| 12/03/10 | 08:30:00 AM | Nonfarm Private Payrolls | Nov | 140K | 159K |
| 12/03/10 | 08:30:00 AM | Unemployment Rate | Nov | 9.60% | 9.60% |
| 12/03/10 | 10:00:00 AM | Factory Orders | Oct | -1.30% | 2.10% |
. Overall, the most important day of the week is Friday with the employment figures being released, but we may also see sizable movement in rates Wednesday. Friday’s employment data could cause a significant change in rates, but Wednesday’s ISM index is also one of the more important reports we see each month. If Friday’s data reveals stronger than expected results we may see rates spike higher after its release, possibly erasing any gains from the week. It will probably be the key to rates moving lower or higher for the week. I suspect it will be another fairly active week for the markets and mortgage pricing, so it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.
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