Mortgage markets booked major losses last week after European leaders spoke of their determination to preserve the European Union. Mortgage rates jumped Thursday and Friday as investors sold positions of relative safety, including bonds, and moved their money into stock markets. Mortgage rates closed the week at a 14-day high and, if not for last week's GDP figures, conforming mortgage rates in Virginia would likely have closed even higher. The Commerce Department said GDP slipped to
+1.5% last quarter, down from +2.0% from January-March. The slowdown suggests that the U.S. economy may not meet analyst's 2012 projections, and gives the market hope that the Federal Reserve will add new stimulus at its scheduled, 2-day meeting this week. The Fed meeting is just one of the story lines affecting mortgage rates this week. For rate shoppers in Henrico and nationwide, it will be a risky week to float a rate. For a brief run-down of the events of the week :
| Date | Time (ET) | Statistic | For | Market Expects | Prior |
| 07/31/12 | 08:30:00 AM | Personal Income | Jun | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| 07/31/12 | 08:30:00 AM | Personal Spending | Jun | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 07/31/12 | 08:30:00 AM | PCE Prices - Core | Jun | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 07/31/12 | 08:30:00 AM | Employment Cost Index | Q2 | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| 07/31/12 | 10:00:00 AM | Consumer Confidence | Jul | 61 | 62 |
| 08/01/12 | 08:15:00 AM | ADP Employment Change | Jul | 125K | 179K |
| 08/01/12 | 10:00:00 AM | ISM Index | Jul | 50.1 | 49.7 |
| 08/01/12 | 02:15:00 PM | FOMC Rate Decision | Jul | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| 08/02/12 | 08:30:00 AM | Initial Claims | 07/28/12 | 365K | 353K |
| 08/03/12 | 08:30:00 AM | Nonfarm Payrolls | Jul | 100K | 80K |
| 08/03/12 | 08:30:00 AM | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 8.20% | 8.20% |
It's important to understand that each of these three events represents major risk to rate shoppers. Mortgage rates will be volatile this week, and that volatility is expected to continue until mid-September, at minimum. If you're shopping for a mortgage, therefore, the longer you wait to lock, the bigger your mortgage rate risk. Especially with rates at all-time lows; rates have been falling for so many weeks, there's a lot of ground to cover on the way back up.
