Bond prices fell and yields rose, predominately on Friday, as a greater number of investors came to the realization that the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could raise interest rates as soon as their next meeting on September 20-21. The financial markets essentially “tread water” during the week in anticipation of what Fed Chair Janet Yellen would say about future monetary policy during the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium late Friday morning. While Yellen didn’t specify when the FOMC might raise interest rates, she stated the FOMC "continues to anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be appropriate over time to achieve and sustain employment and inflation near our statutory objectives. Indeed, In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.” She also commented that the Fed still believes future rate increases should be “gradual” and data dependent. Speaking of data dependency, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer previously said the August Employment Situation Summary (Jobs Report) would be a major factor in determining the FOMC's decision on whether or not to raise rates at their September meeting on September 21. As a result, the next jobs report scheduled to be released on Friday, September 2 will take on added significance for investors. In housing news, New Home Sales reached their highest level in almost nine years during July by climbing an extremely robust 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 654,000 units. The consensus forecast had been for a reading of 580,000 homes. June's sales rate was revised lower to 582,000 units from the previously reported 592,000 units. On an annual basis, New Home Sales were 31.3% higher than a year ago. New home inventory fell 2.9% to 233,000 units, the lowest level since November 2015 and at July's sales pace it would only take 4.3 months to clear the current supply of new houses on the market. The median sale price for a new home was reported at $294,600, a 0.5% decline from a year ago. Additionally, the US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released their Housing Price Index for June showing a 0.2% increase following a 0.2% gain in May. Economists had expected a slightly stronger gain of 0.3%. According to the FHFA, housing prices have gained 5.6% from the second quarter of 2015. Furthermore, the National Association of Realtors reported Existing Home Sales fell 3.2% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million units. Existing Sales were 1.6% lower than the year ago period and were below the consensus forecast of 5.54 million but still remain strong. The median home price increased to $244,100, a 5.3% gain from the year ago period. The dip in sales in July may be temporary however as there may have been a bottleneck in the sales process due to delays with appraisals. Many real-estate agents have complained about delays with appraisals so if this problem gets resolved, sales going forward could pick up.
As for mortgage lending, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released their latest Mortgage Application Data for the week ending August 19th showing the overall seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index decreased 2.1%. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 0.3% from the prior week, while the Refinance Index decreased 3.0%. Overall, the refinance portion of mortgage activity increased to 62.4% of total applications from 62.6%. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity was unchanged from 4.6% of total applications. According to the MBA, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with a conforming loan balance increased from 3.64% to 3.67% with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.31. For the week, the FNMA 3.0% coupon bond lost 1.5 basis points to end at $103.52 while the 10-year Treasury yield increased 4.81 basis points to end at 1.6279%. Stocks ended the week lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 157.17 points to end at 18,395.40. The NASDAQ Composite Index dropped 19.46 points to close at 5,218.92, and the S&P 500 Index fell 14.83 points to close at 2,169.04. Year to date, and exclusive of any dividends, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 5.28%, the NASDAQ Composite Index has added 4.05%, and the S&P 500 Index has advanced 5.77%. This past week, the national average 30-year mortgage rate decreased to 3.41% from 3.42% while the 15-year mortgage rate decreased to 2.75% from 2.76%. The 5/1 ARM mortgage rate rose to 2.86% from 2.85%. FHA 30-year rates held steady at 3.25% while Jumbo 30-year rates decreased to 3.51% from 3.53%.
Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart For the week, the FNMA 30-year 3.0% coupon bond ($103.52, -1.50 basis points) traded within a wider 44 basis point range between a weekly intraday high of $103.88 on Friday and a weekly intraday low of $103.44, also on Friday, before closing the week at $103.52.
The bond initially moved higher ahead of Janet Yellen’s speech Friday morning and continued to trade a little higher immediately afterward. However, when traders heard subsequent comments made by Vice Chair Stanley Fischer during an interview on CNBC two hours later, they felt there was increased “hawkish” sentiment among Fed officials. Fischer said the comments in Yellen’s speech “were consistent with the idea there could be a rate hike in September and again later in the year,” and this helped to trigger a sell-off in bonds Friday afternoon. The day’s action resulted in move below the 25 and 50-day moving averages (MA) located at $103.696 and $103.61 respectively. The 50-day MA reverts to closest resistance while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $103.15 becomes the next support level. The slow stochastic oscillator now shows a solid negative crossover sell signal with the %K line falling below the %D line suggesting a continuing move lower in bond prices that may result in slightly higher rates.
Chart: FNMA 30-Year 3.0% Coupon Bond 
Economic Calendar - for the Week of August 29, 2016 The economic calendar features several reports on the labor sector highlighted by the August Employment Situation Summary (Jobs Report) on Friday. Economic reports having the greatest potential impact on the financial markets are highlighted in bold.
| Date | TimeET | Event /Report /Statistic | For | Market Expects | Prior |
| Aug 29 | 08:30 | Personal Income | July | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Aug 29 | 08:30 | Personal Spending | July | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Aug 29 | 08:30 | Core PCE Prices | July | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Aug 30 | 09:00 | Case-Shiller 20-city Index | June | 5.1% | 5.2% |
| Aug 30 | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Aug | 97.0 | 97.3 |
| Aug 31 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 08/27 | NA | NA |
| Aug 31 | 08:15 | ADP Employment Change | Aug | 170K | 179K |
| Aug 31 | 09:45 | Chicago Purchasing Managers Index | Aug | 54.5 | 55.8 |
| Aug 31 | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | July | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Aug 31 | 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories | 08/27 | NA | NA |
| Sep 01 | 07:30 | Challenger Job Cuts | Aug | NA | -57.1% |
| Sep 01 | 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 08/27 | 265K | 261K |
| Sep 01 | 08:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 08/20 | NA | 2145K |
| Sep 01 | 08:30 | Revised Productivity | 2nd Qtr. | -0.6% | -0.5% |
| Sep 01 | 08:30 | Unit Labor Costs - Revised | 2nd Qtr. | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Sep 01 | 10:00 | Construction Spending | July | 0.6% | -0.6% |
| Sep 01 | 10:00 | ISM Index | Aug | 52.2 | 52.6 |
| Sep 02 | 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls | Aug | 180K | 255K |
| Sep 02 | 08:30 | Nonfarm Private Payrolls | Aug | 175K | 217K |
| Sep 02 | 08:30 | Unemployment Rate | Aug | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Sep 02 | 08:30 | Hourly Earnings | Aug | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Sep 02 | 08:30 | Average Workweek | Aug | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Sep 02 | 08:30 | Trade Balance | July | -$43.0B | -$44.5B |
| Sep 02 | 10:00 | Factory Orders | July | 2.0% | -1.5% |
| Upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Schedule & Rate Hike Probability ** |
| September 2016 | 20-21, (Tuesday-Wednesday)* | 36.0% Chance |
| November 2016 | 1-2, (Tuesday-Wednesday) | 38.3% Chance |
| December 2016 | 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* | 46.1% Chance |
| February 2017 | 01/31-02/01 (Tuesday-Wednesday) | 45.5% Chance |
| March 2017 | 14-15 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* | 44.0% Chance |
| May 2017 | 02-03 (Tuesday-Wednesday) | 43.4% Chance |
| June 2017 | 13-14 (Tuesday-Wednesday)* | 40.6% Chance |
| July 2017 | 25-26, (Tuesday-Wednesday) | 40.2% Chance |
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairman.** Probability generated from the CME Group FedWatch tool based on the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices. 